Jay DeDapper, Political Correspondent
Editor’s Note: Nothing “brief” about this post…but it is the type of comprehensive information that makes Jay one of the best at what he does.
Four days to go before Election Day and some races are in the bag — others are thisclose.
Let’s start with the Senate race and Hillary Clinton – the Republican leadership was never able to find a strong candidate to take her on instead settling on former Yonkers mayor John Spencer – he is quite conservative for this increasingly blue state and has not been able to raise much money at least in comparison to Hillary’s record-shattering $48.5 million. The result is he remains 35 points behind – a number that hasn’t changed much over the course of the campaign.
WNBC/Marist 10/20 Hillary Clinton up by 36% points
Quinnippiac 10/19 Hillary Clinton up by 35% points
It’s the same story in the Governors Race – Eliot Spitzer has been way out in front of his opponent John Faso all year and remains so – the two most recent polls give him a 50 point lead – it would take some mighty powerful surprise to turn this contest around.
WNBC/Marist 10/20 Eliot Spitzer up by 51% points
Quinnippiac 10/18 Eliot Spitzer up by 49% points
The Attorney General race was filled with intrigue earlier this fall when WNBC broke the story that Federal authorities were investigating Republican Jeanine Pirro for alledgedly trying to plant a bug on her husband’s boat to catch him cheating on her. But before and since Democrat Andrew Cuomo has ridden the Democratic wave holding a solid double-digit lead.
The contest for Comptroller on the other hand is the one place Republicans could avoid an historic sweep. Incumbent Democrat Alan Hevesi used a state employee to chauffeur his ailing wife around for several years and only repaid the taxpayers after his opponent Chris Callaghan raised it as an issue. After that Hevesi asked the State Ethics Committee to look into this. That panel came back with an opinion that Hevesi has probably violated state ethics laws and the fallout was swift. Most Republicans called on Hevesi to resign. Most Democrats waited to see what top-of-the-ticket Eliot Spitzer would do. It took him two days but he essentially un-endorsed Hevesi. No other major Democrat followed leaving Hevesi to argue “let the voters decide.”
Right now there are two fronts. On the legal side, the Albany District Attorney has a grand jury looking at the case but nothing is expected before Election Day. On the other hand George Pataki asked former U.S. Attorney David Kelly to look at this case and recommend whether Hevesi should face removal proceedings in the State Senate. His report is expected to be announced later today (Friday) which, depending on the outcome, could add more fuel to the political fire.
Politically Hevesi has battled back with a heavy barrage of ads both attacking Callaghan as not competant to run a $140 billion dollar retirement fund (one of the more important jobs of the state Comptroller) and trumpeting his own record. But Hevesi has become fodder in every other Republican campaign too with ads talking about the scandal running in the Governor and Attorney General races – Callaghan has also become the party’s cause celebre.
In New Jersey there’s one race you’re probably pretty familiar with unless you live in a cave. The Senate campaign between Democrat Bob Menendez and Republican Tom Kean Jr. is the one Senate race in the whole country that Republicans think they have a shot at picking off a Democrat. That explains the ads and nastiness. But there have been six independent polls released in the last couple of days and they all give Menendez a lead that averages out to about 7 points – no poll has shown Kean in the lead since one released in mid-October. Kean wants this election to be about ethics but voters seem to prefer to focus on the Iraq War — which is how Menenedez wants it.
In Connecticut there’s a three-way race for the Senate that incumbent Joe Lieberman is looking pretty good in right now. After losing the Democratic Primary in August he refocused his campaign and has done a good job of attracting independents and some Republicans – that’s important since there are 800-thousand independents in CT, 600-thousand Democrats, and 400-thousand Republicans. Ned Lamont, who won the primary, tried to broaden his anti-war campaign during the fall but it has fallen flat – in the polls Lieberman has never trailed and he’s been helped by the Republican Alan Schlesinger who was abandoned by the national party and has been little more than comic relief in this race. The ads in this race are hot and heavy but have not had an impact if the polls are to be believed.
Finally the big national political story is the House in Balance. The Democrats need 15 seats to take control of the House for the first time since 1994’s “Contract With America” Republican landslide. This year the Northeast is in the spotlight: 13 House races in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut are being closely watched – three that will be bellweathers: Fairfield County’s Fourth District where incumbent Chris Shays has been on the defensive for his support of the War in Iraq; New York 19 covering the city’s northern suburbs where the one-time rock star John Hall is giving incumbent Sue Kelly the race of her political life in a changing district; and New Jersey’s Seventh District which runs across Union, Somerset, and Hunterdon Counties there Republican Mike Ferguson is facing a tough fight in a tough political climate from Linda Stender who’s used Ferguson’s opposition to fetal stem-cell research pretty effectively.
We’ll run down all of the close House races in our area on Live at Five tonight and again Saturday morning on Weekend Today in New York.